The price of pigs fell 3 consecutive weeks this year should not soar

Post-holiday demand decreases Pig prices fall for 3 consecutive weeks This year, hog prices should not soar After the spring, due to the decline in demand, prices of edible agricultural products (11.73, 0.22, 1.91%) have come down, and pork prices have taken the brunt. The relevant market monitoring shows that the price of live pigs has dropped for three consecutive weeks, and the national average price has approached 8 yuan/kg.

“The selling price of the western Guangdong has fallen below 8!” The general manager of Guangsanbao, a well-known animal husbandry company in Guangdong, revealed that he told the Nanfang Daily reporter yesterday. According to him, the drop in pork prices was due to the decline in post-holiday consumption and related to the recent epidemic.

At the same time, farmers’ enthusiasm for restocking has soared. The monitoring showed that the average price of piglets in the country continued to rise sharply from 31.74 yuan/kg last week to 33.38 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 63.31%. "This year's market is unlikely to surge like last year, and the overall trend will be relatively stable." Jieyang analysis said.

The decline in consumption was intertwined with the epidemic. “The national hog market fell continuously for three weeks after the Spring Festival. The pig price has fallen below 17 yuan/kg to 16.57 yuan/kg last week.” Feng Yonghui, chief consultant of China Live Pig Warning Network, told the Nanfang Daily reporter that many The price of pigs in the producing areas has dropped to 8 yuan/kg, even into the 7 yuan/kg range. According to his analysis, due to the fall in demand, the price of pigs has started to fall into a downtrend channel since the Spring Festival and is expected to continue falling in the short term.

In fact, the prices of edible agricultural products fell after the holiday. According to the monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 14th, last week (February 6th to 12th), the wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables fell by 4.8% compared with the previous week; the price of meat was mainly reduced, and the prices of pork and mutton decreased by 1.9% respectively. And 0.2%.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the average price of major foods in 50 cities on the same day (February 1-10, 2012). The data showed that the price of pork rear hip (heel) was 29.57 yuan/kg, which was higher than the previous period (2012). January 21-30) fell 2.9%.

According to Feng Yonghui's analysis, this is mainly caused by changes in seasonal demand. Usually, after the Spring Festival, pork prices will decline due to the decrease in consumption. "A lot of schools have not started school this year. The factory is underemployed and it is relatively late, so the consumer market is not yet prosperous." Jieyang also agreed.

However, it was revealed that the epidemic also caused a certain disruptive effect on the market. From the beginning of last year to the beginning of this year, the cold winter and cold springs lasted for a long time. Diarrhea occurred in newly born piglets in some areas, and there were other epidemics. Some farmers produced panic, and they led to a centralized listing in advance of slaughter. "When there were no pigs last year, the slaughterhouses and pig dealers were looking for pigs everywhere; now it is the opposite! Farmers are looking for people to collect pigs everywhere."

The downtrend won't last long. Last year's inflation was high, and a considerable part of it was pig prices. Will this year repeat the story of last year? "The trend after this year's holiday season is very similar to last year!" Feng Yonghui pointed out, but he does not think that the trend will be the same throughout the year. "The downtrend of pork prices may not last long. From the perspective of the current column, from May to June There will be a rise."

"After last year's skyrocketing period, the state introduced a series of measures and the stocks have increased. Plus, this year's inflation situation is not as serious as last year, so this year it is unlikely that there will be another sharp rise and fall." Said Jieyang Analysis. According to his prediction, the pig price may run in the main range of 7.5-8.5 yuan/kg.

On February 13, Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said during a visit to Xinhua.com, from the current situation, the price of pigs this year should be a downward trend, not only stabilizing at the current level, but also slightly. After the Spring Festival, the price of pigs will continue to decrease.

Zhou Wangjun believes that the live pig this year is still a loose situation. He suggested that farmers should appropriately reduce the reserve bar. "It has developed rapidly now. You can make up for it and the price for the pig will surely have to come down. This year, pig raising is still a comparison." A difficult year, don't blindly fill the bar, you can add less than the previous month."

Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the enthusiasm of current farmers for making up the hurdles or the accelerated decline in the price of meat in the later period will also depressurize inflation this year. “As prices have gradually faded due to festivals, the pork that has been the main driver of CPI growth has become a representative of price declines since last year. Affected by this, the CPI in February and even the first quarter has been completely reduced to less than 4%.” Li Guoxiang Analysis said.