It is expected that the annual price of rice will increase

Comprehensive rice consumption and other consumption, domestic rice consumption totaled 16.752 million tons in August, taking into consideration part of the early rice and the southwestern region's middle rice harvest, and the total harvest is expected to be 16.526 million tons, comprehensive harvest, early-month inventory and import and export volume, domestic rice stock at the end of the month It was 966.31 billion tons and the monthly consumption coefficient was 5.8, which was basically the same as last year.

Looking at the inventory structure, as of the end of August, the total amount of early rice purchases was 4.765 million tons, state-owned enterprises acquired 5.087 million tons, and private enterprises acquired 2.173 million tons; comprehensive consideration was given to grain purchases, processing and sales of enterprises, and sales of farmer households. It is expected that state-owned enterprises Inventory is 41.56 million tons; trader stocks are about 5.1 million tons, processing companies hold stocks at about 17.12 million tons, and farmer stocks are expected to be 32.85 million tons. Considering the previous year's inventory and the harvest of new grain, the sales rate of rice farmers in 2012 reached 47.23%; higher than the 39.24% of the same period of last year, the large number of acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, and the promotion of farmers' grain sales rate has increased significantly.

Annual crop analysis

In 2012/13, due to continued national policies, the sown area of ​​rice continued to increase slightly. The sown area was 30,305 thousand hectares in the year, an increase of 0.26% over the previous year. The output increased by 1.34% and is expected to reach 202.9 million tons; And direct feed and industrial consumption continued to grow. The arrival of total domestic consumption increased by 1.61%, reaching 202.9 million tons. It is expected that the stock at the end of the year will be 8470.2 and the safety factor will be 41.75%.

The August price was 2,759 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.46% over the previous year; the average price from July to August was 2,741 yuan/ton, up 9.16% from the same period of last year; the annual crop price was affected by the decline in inflation and safety factor. It is expected that the increase will be 5-8%, and the estimated price may reach 2,812 yuan/ton.